The Daily Decision for 2.3.16
Welcome to the new look for the Daily Decisions report. We've restructured the report to make things easier to use and understand.
What's new? For starters, the Daily Decision "Main Model" is now the primary focus of the service. For those that want to follow a single, professional, diversified approach to managing the risk of the U.S. stock market - this is it. One decision. Once a day. Done.
For those who want to utilize different approaches in their trading, we offer 4 additional models: Our Daily Timing Models, a Mean Reversion Model, a Graduated Exposure Model, and Dave's long-term "Desert Island" Model.
It is our sincere hope that the new look to the Daily Decision Service will help you in your investing endeavors.
Today's Decisions:
The position below represents the "early reading" intended for today's close. However, please note that positions may change during the trading session. As a reminder, we will send a Trade Alert/Notification via email and/or SMS Text Message BEFORE every we make a move.
The Daily Decision Model:
About: This is the primary Daily Decision model designed for the vast majority of investors. If you want to follow a professional, diversified approach to managing the risk of the U.S. stock market - this is it. One decision. Once a day. Done.
Today's Position: 4.5% Long (1.5% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
Note: This model is diversified across time-frames (short-, intermediate-, and long-term) as well as trading methodologies. This model represents a real-world professional investor's approach to managing exposure/risk to the U.S. stock market. The Diversified Model components are: 40% Desert Island System, 35% Graduated Exposure System, 25% DD Hybrid Trading System.
New to the Daily Decisions?
Our current "New Member Rating" is:
Buy
Additional Daily Decision Trading Models/Systems:
In an effort to provide additional research and trading guidance for a wide array of members, we provide 5 additional trading models and/or trading systems including two short-term, all-in/all-out "timing models," a shorter-term mean reversion system, an intermediate-term graduated exposure system, and the long-term "desert island" risk management system. Below are the current readings for each.
The Timing Models (Short-Term):
About: These are shorter-term all-in/all-out timing models designed stay on the correct side of the market's trends.
Today's Positions:
DD Hybrid Model: 25% Long (8.3% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
DD Aggressive Model: 25% Long (8.3% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
The Mean Reversion Model (Short-Term):
About: The Mean Reversion Model is designed to indicate when conditions are ripe for the market to "go the other way" from the current trend.
Today's Position:
16.7% Long (5.6% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
The Graduated Exposure System (Intermediate-Term):
About: The Mean Reversion Model is designed to indicate when conditions are ripe for the market to "go the other way" from the current trend.
Today's Position:
0% Long (0% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
Note: The maximum possible long exposure for the Graduated Exposure System is 200%.
The "Desert Island" System (Long-Term):
About: The Desert Island Model is designed to indicate which team is in control. The primary objective of this model is to avoid high risk, bear market environments.
Today's Position:
0% Long (0% UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500)
Note: The maximum possible long exposure for the Desert Island System is 200%.
Current Market Environment Model Reading:
Daily Decision Performance:
Below is a summary of the live and backtested returns of strategies provided in the Daily Decisions service.
Before we ever invest our hard earned capital in a market strategy, we believe it is important to thoroughly test the system in different market environments. While all system tests have flaws, the idea is that a backtest can provide us with (1) proof of concept and (2) an indication of what we might be able to expect from the system in different market environments. And from a longer-term standpoint, we are pleased with the way the systems perform in most market environments.
| The Daily Decision Systems Performance Results (Updated Weekly on Mondays) | ||||||||
Period |
The Daily Decision Model(1) |
DD Timing Hybrid Model(2) |
DD Timing Aggressive Model(2) |
Graduated Exposure Model(3) |
Desert Island Model(3) |
S&P 500 Index | ||
| 1997 | +42.85% | +46.08% | +97.09% | +43.36% | +40.39% | +31.01% | ||
| 1998 | +51.12% | +85.70% | +170.47% | +41.31% | +38.08% | +26.67% | ||
| 1999 | +17.91% | +32.36% | +70.39% | +8.22% | +17.35% | +19.53% | ||
| 2000 | +6.51% | +30.93% | +63.29% | -5.92% | +2.13% | -10.14% | ||
| 2001 | +21.74% | +30.64% | +64.94% | +14.02% | +22.93% | -13.04% | ||
| 2002 | +13.87% | +21.52% | +40.48% | +14.45% | +8.59% | -23.37% | ||
| 2003 | +48.80% | +56.23% | +104.53% | +28.30% | +62.09% | +26.38% | ||
| 2004 | +15.40% | +11.81% | +26.86% | +9.20% | +23.08% | +8.99% | ||
| 2005 | +5.74% | +5.71% | +7.26% | +3.62% | +7.62% | +3.00% | ||
| 2006 | +18.89% | +26.10% | +47.43% | +5.55% | +26.05% | +13.62% | ||
| 2007 | +15.67% | +23.91% | +46.63% | +3.30% | +21.35% | +3.53% | ||
| 2008 | +50.06% | +44.62% | +92.78% | +15.29% | +21.35% | -38.49% | ||
| 2009 | +66.50% | +204.78% | +161.00% | +47.77% | +70.84% | +23.45% | ||
| 2010 | +30.37% | +33.43% | +61.20% | +26.32% | +27.32% | +12.78% | ||
| 2011 | +20.47% | -7.42% | -26.80% | +3.38% | +21.45% | -0.00% | ||
| 2012 | +27.83% | +8.14% | +16.47% | +20.33% | +29.58% | +13.41% | ||
| 2013 | +36.38% | +27.27% | +44.34% | +37.28% | +38.45% | +29.60% | ||
| 2014 | +11.19% | +3.54% | -1.14% | +7.43% | +16.83% | +11.93% | ||
| 2015 | -4.79% | -12.70% | -16.00% | -3.04% | -1.37% | -0.73% | ||
| 2016 | -4.31% | -1.97% | -1.97% | -2.43% | -7.42% | -5.07% | ||
| Compound Average Annual Return: (1997 - 2015) | +24.68% Per Year |
+27.62% Per Year |
+50.25% Per Year |
+15.83% Per Year |
+30.20% Per Year |
+5.45% Per Year | ||
| (1) The Daily Decision Model (aka the "Main Model") Components: 40% Desert Island System, 35% Graduated Exposure System, 25% DD Hybrid Trading System. Live Returns from December 2015 forward, backtested results prior | ||||||||
| (2) Live Returns from January 2009 forward, backtested results prior | ||||||||
| (3) Live Returns from January 2015 forward, backtested results prior | ||||||||
Have a great day!
David D. Moenning
Founder, StateoftheMarkets.com
President, Heritage Capital Research
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Daily Decision Links:
Market Environment Model Explained
Daily Decision Model Portfolios Explained
Interactive Performance Details
Backtested Performance Information
Introduction to the Graduated Exposure System
Backtested Performance of Graduated Exposure System
Performance/Statistical FactSheet for Graduated Exposure System
Posted to Daily Decisions Service on Feb 03, 2016 — 8:02 AM
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