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SPY staged a rally after bottoming at the –10% pullback area last week to close with a doji on Friday above the daily 5 period ma at 187.27 with a 188.47 line in the sand. The daily stochastic crossed up and a make or break is setting up. The daily 15 period ma sits at 192.38. SPY bottomed at 181.92 and peaked at 189.75 last week.

Key daily fibs to watch are 191.05, 187.72, 186.61 and 184.42 with 195.81 and 179.64 as the more extremes of the range. Watch the daily 5 period ma slope if it starts to coil back up. The fib numbers work best intraday with the .20 wiggle room. There are a lot of bellweather earnings plays this week as we usually see an upswing in gaps by the third week of earnings.

 <> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *

*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.

WFM Long – WFM has a daily make or break with daily 5/15 period mas at 37.73/37.83 overlap. The 36.30-36. range has been basing as support. Longs trigger on pullbacsk to the 36.60s-36.40s with a stop under 36 for tightening to the 3770-37.90 area and then secondary target at 38.07-38.20 on the daily 50pd ma.

TWTR Long – TWTR is lagging FB with fib and daily 5 period ma support at 48.84-48.64. The daily 50pd ma sits at 49.60. Longs trigger above 49.71 or on pullbacks to the 47.97-4777 area with a -.75 trail stop on both to target the 50.35-50.60 range and 51.19 secondary 1.27 fib.

TGT Short – TGT peaked out at the daily 5 period ma with stochastics crossing back down again. Shorts trigger at 58.88 or 59.88 with a - .33 trail stop for 58.56 and 58.33 daily lower bbs downside targets.

Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:

HUM 124 lower trendline

GPRO 91.70, 89.40, 88.05, 86.40, 83.05 -key fibs

UA 65 -double bottom support

BABA – 91.70, 89.40, 88.10 – key fibs

YHOO- 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs

AAPL- 103.17, 101.92, 101.04, 99.29, 98.69, 98.08- key fibs.

FB- 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75,.53, 7512, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs

TWTR- 41.19, 50.51, 48.82, 47.95, 47.63, 45.38 – key fibs 

Earnings Reports This Week:

Mon: premarket: SAP, VFC, HAL, BTU, GCI, HAS: postmarket: IBM, CDNS, CMG, HLX, HSTM, PKG, RMBS, TXN, UCTT, AAPL, ILMN

Tues: premarket: APOL, ARMH, HOG, KO, LMT, MCD, OMC, RF, UTX, VZ, EAT: postmarket: YHOO, BRCM, IRBT, ISRG, MANH, QDEL, UIS, VMW, ZIXI, ETFC, DTLK, SMCI, CREE

Wed: premarket: ABT, NTRS, BEAV, PACW, ANGI, BA, BABY, EMC, MDCO, TMO, BSX, XRX, LL: postmarket: OFIX, EXPO, CA, CA, CAKE, CLGX, CTXS, EFX, EGHT, FTNT, INFN, IPCM, LOGI, MKSI, ORLY, PLCM, SGMO, SLM, T, TILE, TER, TSCO, MKTO, MLNX, NOW, OTEX, SCI, YELP, FTK, LQ

Thurs: premarket: UTEK, CFX, CHKP, CMCSA, HERO, JAKK, NOK, UTL, AAL, ALK, ALXN, BMS, CAB, CAM, CAT, CCMP, CELG, CRI, DGX, DLX, DNKN, DO, EQT, GM, GRUB, IMAX, JBLU, KKR, LAZ, LLY, LUV, MMM, MNRO, OSTK, PENN, PCP, RCL, RS, SQNS, TROW, UA, UAL, UNP, ACAT, SLAB, AMAG, GNC, YNDX, LO, SONS, GMT, OXY, RYL, AVT, OSIS: postmarket: POL, FWRD, JNPR, MSFT, HWAY, ALGN, ALTR, AMZN, BLDR, CBI, CERN, CTCT, CYN, DECK, ELY, GIMO, INFA, IM, LSCC, MXIM, N, NTGR, P, PACB, QLIK, RVBD, SPSC, SWFT, VRSN, WIRE, WOOF, COVS, CPWR, RUBI, WYNN, BMRN, CLUB, MXWL, SYNA, DV, MTX, SHOR

Fri: premarket: EDU, MOSY, ERIC, STT, BMY, COG, F, FLIR, NDAQ, IDXX, LEA, LPNT, UPS, CL, IMGN, PG, VTR

We’ve got a lot of tradeable earnings reports this week. The SPY range and volatility thinned out on Friday so a make or break is setting up as ranges should continue to tighten preceding a resolution. Watch the line in the sand at 188.47 versus the daily 5 period ma at 187.25 and the 190 upper range. - J

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