The Daily Decision for 11.21.14


Today's Decision: Hold Long Positions


Strategy Update:
Our Market Environment Model is Positive this morning.


As always, we will send a Trade Alert via email BEFORE we make a move.

For more information and complete details about the Daily Decision Service, head to the Daily Decision Resource Page


Market Outlook:
The bulls received a shot in the arm this morning from both the Chinese and the Europeans. And in the early going, it looks like stocks will advance to fresh all-time highs at the open. However, we need to keep in mind that the market has run a long way in a very short period of time and therefore we must be on the lookout for what is called an abrupt rally failure. But with performance anxiety being high and the calendar running out of pages, one could argue that the current melt-up will continue. We shall see. But for now, our market models remain positive.


Looking at the Charts... As the saying goes, the most bullish thing a market can do is make new highs. Yet on the other sideline, the bears may be huddling to try and find some way to make a defensive stop. Our furry friends do have an overbought condition on their side. But the bottom line is the bear camp has been unable to do anything with the opportunities they have had recently. This is not to say that this trend will continue, but at this stage, the technicals tell us to lean bullish.


S&P 500 - Last 3 Months


Have a great day!

David D. Moenning
Founder, StateoftheMarkets.com
President, Heritage Capital Research

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Check out Heritage Capital Research's NextGen Active Risk Manager
(Performance Fact Sheets Now Available for Download)


The upgraded management system uses swing trading, mean reversion, and trend identification strategies, moves incrementally, and employs multiple managers.

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Current Positions:
Main Model: 34% ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) - Effective Net Position: 100% Long S&P 500

Hybrid Model: 67% ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) - Effective Net Position: 200% Long S&P 500

Aggressive Model: 100% ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) - Effective Net Position: 300% Long S&P 500

Daily Decision Model Portfolios Explained


New to the Daily Decision?
Our current "New Member Rating" is:  Buy

New Member Ratings Explained


Current Market Environment Model Reading:
Today's Risk Model Reading: Positive

Market Environment Model Explained


Daily Decision System Performance:
Below is a summary of the cumulative returns of the three Daily Decision strategies since we began issuing signals in 2009.


The Daily Decision Service
Live Performance Results
From 1/1/2009
 



Period


Main
Model


Hybrid
Model


Aggressive
Model
Barclay Equity
Long/Short
Hedge Fund
Index*


S&P 500
Index
2009 +63.51% +204.78% +161.00% +14.42% +23.45%
2010 +20.58% +33.43% +61.20% +7.27% +12.78%
2011 -4.58% -7.42% -26.80% -4.58% -0.00%
2012 +9.81% +8.14% +16.47% +6.35% +13.41%
2013 +19.78% +27.27% +44.34% +13.85% +29.60%
2014 (YTD) +7.23% +11.77% +11.52% +1.66%* +11.06%

Cumulative
Total Return:
+165.35% +479.18% +477.39 +44.16* +127.26%

Average
Annual Return:

(2009 - 2013)
+19.87%
Per Year
+38.96%
Per Year
+38.94%
Per Year
+6.83%
Per Year
+15.19%
Per Year
 
* Updated Monthly
 

Click Here for Interactive Performance Details

Backtested Performance Information - Includes Returns for the Adaptive System Currently Being Employed


For more information and complete details about the Daily Decision Service, head to the Daily Decision Resource Page



Read Disclaimer for The Daily Decision Service

The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Posted to Daily Decisions Service on Nov 21, 2014 — 9:11 AM
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