Weekly Notes for Aug 24th-28th, 2014

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SPY floated to new intraday highs at 207.64 on Friday on the big gap fueled by China rate cuts and ECB implementing QE. However, the gap sold off from the open in a slow downward grind before a coil at the end of the day forming a potential island top. Expecting a gap fill to test the daily 5 period ma, however, Thanksgiving week has usually been a bullish  one on light volume, which makes it interesting when the daily SPY is attempting to mini inverse pup.

Key daily SPY fibs/bumpers this week: 213.24, 211.10 (daily upper bbs), 207.64 (stinky 2.50s levels and highs), 204.83, 201.98, 201.24, 198.15. We will watch the stochastics for pullbacks towards the daily 15 period ma IF the SPY can close under the 203.70 area. The volume will start to thin out sooner as Thanksgiving week and holiday approaches. In thin volume, the SPY can grind in a zombie algo driven ‘float’ mode, which makes it tough to hold any short positions overnight. Keep things segmented to the dominant time frame.

<> Stocks to Watch <> : A lot of these are contingent on the SPY. If SPY forms daily mini inv pups, then SCRATCH the LONGS or cut down to shorter time frames. To be safe, make sure that the 60 min stochastics peaks out before taking short positions and short the RETEST FAILURES of the short area bumpers listed. DO NOT SHORT RIGHT INTO THE FIRST TEST if the 60 min is in a mini pup grind up. Get the 15/5 min to slip and 60 min to STALL at least on the stochastics and then position with a good 1 min stochs reversal down. Remember all stocks are anchored by the action of the SPY (or noodles) and contingent on the SPY movement unless there is a strong fade effect in place. * Don’t play breakout longs if the SPY is in a breakdown and vice versa *

*** Most stocks are mirroring the SPY intraday as well as daily. Therefore, track the SPY closely. Make note if your stocks are diverging or not as this could mean it’s a laggard that will ultimately revert to SPY or a fader that will magnify the move once the SPY reverses.

GNRC Long – GNRC is a seasonal play on generators. The daily has a mini pup with the 5 period ma at 43.35. Longs trigger on pullbacks to the 43.60-43.30 area with a 42.79 trail stop for continued grind towards 44.40-45 and then 46.30-47 daily upper bbs.

UA Short – UA formed a daily MSH trigger under 68.72. UA triggers shorts at 68.50 for a tightening back to the 68.05 daily 15 and daily 50 period ma at 66.76. This one can be thin so be careful not to be chasing low bands this week.

Key Long/Short Bumper and Fibonacci levels:

SPY – 212.67, 209.74, 207.86, 204.90, 204.24, 203.50

FSLR – 51.74, 42.84 fibs

GPRO- 90.48, 83.50, 71.78, 63.54 -key fibs

BABA – 115.17, 111.09, 108.21, 103.24, 99.70, 98.21, 96.90. 94.70, 93.1591.61, 89.40, 88.10 – key fibs

YHOO- 47.68, 45.82, 44.59, 42.05, 41.01, 40.10, 38.57, 37.50, 36.42 – key fibs

AAPL- 111.32, 109.39, 107.17, 104.59, 103.17, 101.92, 101.04, 99.29, 98.69, 98.08- key fibs.

FB- 80.60, 78.66, 77.57, 76.72, 7636, 75,.53, 7512, 74.78, 73.97, 72.78 – key fibs

TWTR- 51.19, 50.51, 48.82, 47.95, 47.63, 45.38 – key fibs 

Earnings Reports This Week:

Mon: premarket: TSL, NM, ENTA: postmarket: WG, NUAN, BRCD, QIHU, KANG, DY, WDAY, ANFI, PANW, CPRT

Tues: premarket: DSX, LG, VAL, DANG, CTRN, HRL, DAKT, DSW, MOV, TECD, BWS, CHS, TIF, YGE, FRED, SIG, PLL, CPB, RSH, CBRL: postmarket: CTRP, UTI, PWRD, GPQ, ADT, ADI, NMBL, TIVO, VNET, AVNW, AVAV, BLOX, XNET

Wed: premarket: GWPH, SOL, DE, SDRL: postmarket: OFIX, LEFS, CNQR, GES, WTSL

Fri: premarket: FRO

Volume will dry up this week. Consider this and focus primarily on the opening action. Markets are closed on Thanksgiving day, Thursday, November 27th and close at 1pm est on Friday. - Cya in the room!- J

Posted to Morning Profit Maker on Nov 23, 2014 — 1:11 PM
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