Today's Daily Decision:  Hold Long Positions
As always, we will send a Trade Alert via email BEFORE we make a move.

Current Daily Decision Positions:
Main Model: 34% ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) - Equivalent Position: 100% long
Hybrid Model: 50% ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) - Equivalent Position: 150% long
Aggressive Model: 67% ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) - Equivalent Position: 200% long

The Daily Exposure System:
Today's Position: 50% ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO) - Effective Position: 100% long (Maximum Possible Long Exposure: 200%)
This the intended exposure as of today's close. Note that the position may change before the close and we will send an alert detailing any changes during the day. The Exposure System is a separate portfolio provided to subscribers and does NOT impact the Daily Decision positions shown above.

Current Market Outlook:
Any time the market puts in a romp up of more than 5%, traders naturally look for a pullback to begin. So, given that the S&P 500 rallied +6.1% from January 30 through February 24, it isn't exactly surprising to see stocks taking a break here. And given that the market has only finished green once in the last five days, one couldn't be blamed for feeling a little queasy about the near-term outlook. However, we need to keep in mind that pullbacks within an uptrend are definitely part of the game. So, unless our market models begin to weaken in earnest, we will consider the current action to be a "sloppy period" within the context of an uptrend, or what is commonly referred to as a pause that refreshes. What would change our minds? In short, a hard break below the 2085 area on the S&P 500 would likely be an indication that something more meaningful might be in the works. But for now, our indicators tell us to give the bulls the benefit of any doubt.

Technical Talk:
Sometimes in this game, it is important to know where you've been in order to have a short at determining where you might go next. So, let's review. From mid-December through very early-February, the S&P 500 traced out a frustrating consolidating pattern, changing direction no fewer than 6 times before breaking out of the pattern on February 2. After waffling for a few days, the index did what technicians expected it to do and embarked on a new leg higher. And before long, the range was forgotten as new all-time highs were recorded. However, the momentum of the leg higher appears to have stalled over the last couple weeks. Therefore, a test of the last resistance zone which, as the textbooks tell us, should now act as important support, would be logical. And given that the bears have managed to record a red number for the SPX for three consecutive days, a test of the 2085 could be programmed into a trading algo or two. The key, of course, will be how the market acts if/when it tests this critical technical juncture.

S&P 500 Index - Last 3 Months

Have a great day!

David D. Moenning
Founder, StateoftheMarkets.com
President, Heritage Capital Research

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Our current "New Member Rating" is:  Buy

Current Market Environment Model Reading:
Today's Risk Model Reading: Positive

Daily Decision System Performance:

Below is a summary of the cumulative returns of the three Daily Decision strategies since we began issuing signals in 2009 as well as the backtested results for each of the "new" upgraded models for the same time frame.

Daily Decision Links:

Daily Decision Resource Page - More information and complete details about the Daily Decision Service

New Member Ratings Explained

Market Environment Model Explained

Daily Decision Model Portfolios Explained

Interactive Performance Details

Backtested Performance Information - Includes Returns for the Adaptive System Currently Being Employed

Introduction to the Graduated Exposure System

Backtested Performance of Graduated Exposure System

Performance/Statistical FactSheet for Graduated Exposure System

Information on Account Management

Heritage Capital Research

Read Disclaimer for The Daily Decision Service

The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.