5 Things I'm Watching in Today's Jobs Report

Morning all!  The monthly Non-farm payroll numbers come out this morning before the bell.  I'll make this report a quick one since they will be released in less than an hour.

I'm watching for these 5 things from the report:

1. The US economy has added an average of 267k jobs each month over the past 12 months.  Will February's numbers be above or below average?  With all the snow, and with 2 fewer days, we should see a number below the average.

2. November's numbers were huge, up and over 400k new jobs.  December's came in lower, nearer to 300k.  And January's numbers were lower still, around 250k.  Will this month continue this 3-month downtrend?

3. Wage growth has been flat since the crash during the Great Recession years.  It hovers around 2%, give or two 25 basis points.  Wage growth in past recoveries typically is around 3%.  Will we move closer to that ideal?  Or further away.  Any number under 2% will be seen as quite negative.

4. The "participation in the work force" number has been pretty dismal.  It was last pegged at around 63%, a figure more in line with the 1970's than recent years.  Any drop in this figure is likely to be seen as a negative.

5. In recent months, hiring has picked up in manufacturing and construction, both key drivers to economic growth in a recovery.  Will that trend continue?  Or will the horrible February weather be blamed for a slow-down in these sectors?  I'll also be watching for continued slowdown in the mining sector (blame a decrease in oil production).  

That's it.  Blessings to all, and trade safely!  TC

Posted to Dr. Stoxx Options Letter on Mar 06, 2015 — 7:03 AM
Comments ({[comments.length]})
Sort By:
Loading Comments
No comments. Break the ice and be the first!
Error loading comments Click here to retry
No comments found matching this filter
Want to add a comment? Take me to the new comment box!