The Daily Decisions for 7.6.15


Today's Daily Decisions:
As a reminder, we will send a Trade Alert via email and/or SMS Text Alert BEFORE we make a move.


Managers Note: This continues to be an extremely difficult trading environment from a short-term perspective. The first thing to recognize is that this type of environment has definitely occurred in the past. For example, see the backtest results of the systems during 1999 and 2004-06. However, it is worth noting that the "Graduated Exposure System" (published daily below) has done a much better job handling the current whipsaw environment than the all-in/all-out "trading system."


The Daily Decision Trading System:
Today's Early Decision: Hold Cash Positions
Main Model: 0% ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) - Equivalent Position: 0% long
Hybrid Model: 0% ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) - Equivalent Position: 0% long
Aggressive Model: 0% ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) - Equivalent Position: 0% long


The Daily Decision Graduated Exposure System:
Today's Position: 25% Long (12.5% SSO - ProShares Ultra S&P 500)
Notes: Today's positions is as of today's close. Today's position may change before the close. If there is a change, we will send an alert prior to the close. The maximum possible long exposure for the Graduated Exposure System is 200%.


New to the Daily Decision?
Our current "New Member Rating" is: Hold


Current Market Environment Model Reading:


The New Daily Decision System BackTest Results

Before we ever invest our hard earned capital in a market strategy, we believe it is important to thoroughly test the system in different market environments. While all system tests have flaws, the idea is that a backtest can provide us with (1) proof of concept and (2) an indication of what we might be able to expect from the system in different market environments. For example, while the results were favorable in most years, the system did not perform well in year 2005/2006 and the Aggressive Model underperformed the S&P 500 in 2011. However, from a longer-term standpoint, we are pleased with the way the system performs in most market environments.

The table below shows the backtested results for the upgraded Daily Decision System put into service on 1/1/2015.


Daily Decision Trading System Live Performance:

Below is a summary of the cumulative returns of the three Daily Decision strategies since we began issuing signals in 2009.

The Daily Decision Trading System
Live Performance Results
From 1/1/2009



Period


Main
Model


Hybrid
Model


Aggressive
Model

Barclay L/S
HedgeFund
Index*


S&P 500
Index
2009 +63.51% +204.78% +161.00% +14.42% +23.45%
2010 +20.58% +33.43% +61.20% +36.52% +12.78%
2011 -4.58% -7.42% -26.80% -4.58% -0.00%
2012 +9.81% +8.14% +16.47% +6.35% +13.41%
2013 +19.78% +27.27% +44.34% +13.85% +29.60%
2014 +3.93% +3.54% -1.14% +3.74% +11.93%
2015 (YTD) -6.35% -8.89% -12.34% +1.69%* +0.87%

Cumulative
Total Return:
+140.77% +389.08% +348.70% +49.59* +131.92%

Average
Annual Return:

(2009 - 2014)
+17.05%
Per Year
+32.31%
Per Year
+31.28%
Per Year
+6.83%
Per Year
+14.81%
Per Year
* Updated Monthly

Have a great day!

David D. Moenning
Founder, StateoftheMarkets.com
President, Heritage Capital Research



Is Your IRA Prepared for the Next Bear Market?

Check Out HCR's Long-Term Risk Manager System
System averages 1-2 moves per Year
Primary Goal: Avoid Bear Markets!
Perfect for IRA's!



Daily Decision Links:

Daily Decision Resource Page - More information and complete details about the Daily Decision Service

New Member Ratings Explained

Market Environment Model Explained

Daily Decision Model Portfolios Explained

Interactive Performance Details

Backtested Performance Information - Includes Returns for the Adaptive System Currently Being Employed

Introduction to the Graduated Exposure System

Backtested Performance of Graduated Exposure System

Performance/Statistical FactSheet for Graduated Exposure System

Information on Account Management

Heritage Capital Research


Read Disclaimer for The Daily Decision Service

The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Posted to Daily Decisions Service on Jul 06, 2015 — 9:07 AM
Comments on this post have been disabled by the Maven.