A.G.I.S.I.B. = "Any Green I See I Book" is my motto for 2014. I said it this morning on my pre-open appearance on the Benzinga/Optionshouse show (here). Why I mention the show? because the debate topics were important and they touched on the Macro and a few micro (including Apple). 

Why AGISIB now? because if this morning you didn't book your profits then you saw them disappear and turn into losses!

The complaint of late has been the 'lack of volatility.' Well you got it today where the ES has a range wider than $20. Super Tuesday turned into fake out Tuesday. CNBC blames a headline from Syria but that's just the trigger to the existing underlying situation: we are at all time highs and the long hands are likely weak... much weaker than 2013.

The small caps led the morning rally and they led down closing -1% after being up almost 1%.

Members, our pre-open levels served as a good guide to today's action as we got to see both upper and lower limits come into play. I will update us tomorrow before the open.

The price action today was discouraging to bulls since we failed to beat recent after hour highs. Indices need to be able to hold after hour highs during market hours for me to believe it.

A few bearish price action signs:

• ES couldn't close higher than 6/9 & today's pre-open highs. I don't see doom yet. In my interview this morning I reminded Joel and Dennis that the bears have not yet ceded the SPX 1950 level. Either side now needs a catalyst to break away from the line this week.

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• SPX daily chart still shows a rising wedge that usually is bearish. Yes, it could break out but more often then not it fails. Today the chart got even worse.
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• TF (Small caps) looks tired after a hard fought battle today. And now looks head and shoulder ish:

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• Many Momentum stocks could NOT hold their greens so run up sustainability is back in doubt.
• NDX weak after such promise early. This leader needs to lead.
• An Apple a day is no longer good for markets. Apple working on 3rd sequential red week. It weighs heavy in the indices and likely be a drag.

So what to do? Other than AGISIB, my message is still to NOT chase! I am also comfortable shorting a little against a few longs. Members, you saw the new short idea and it's already nicely green in just hours. I don't expect doom but I also fail to see positive catalysts. So in the meantime I sell premium to take advantage of time decay during this stale mate.

Other points of concern :

• Janet Yellen: After last week, she now is my #1 concern. I have no faith in her resolution. First the '6months' answer a few months back was off the cuff and caused trouble. Now, the 'ignore the hot CPI' comment last week is also off the cuff. These are amateurish statements that shouldn't come out of the person heading the FED of the #1 nation. Her comments make me believe that she is stalling while trying to find out what to do and when. I would expect to hear certainty regarding what guides her actions. After Bernanke threw out the 6.5% unemployment threshold, he promoted the CPI. Last week she unofficially threw the CPI out and replaced it with nothing leaving us to wonder. I've even heard talks of a short Yellen tenure. Being calm in her answers is good but wishy-washy is scary.
  
• The geo-political turmoil is ablaze. Russian troop build up vs. Ukraine; Arab world on the brink of holy wars. Talks of assassination of Kings, etc. We are a few incident away from multi nation and multi continent wars.
• Major economic experiments going in Japan.
• Doubtful Chinese lending practices and unverifiable econ data.
• Argentina needing to restructure debt (remember Greece).
• Loose money getting looser (ECB etc).

Wednesday: Is All about the GDP. If it doesn't impress then we should carry negative momentum into tomorrow's open and bears will be able to do more damage to the bull's gusto.

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