MAKO 02/01/13

MAKO is a member of my Top 20 Model Portfolio, the most aggressive investment in the model.  The company makes surgical robots used in minimally-invasive hip and knee surgeries along with implants.  This is a rapidly growing market, with MAKO as a leader but with very small share of the overall target markets.  The company pre-announced procedures and system sales for Q4 in January.  My target, based on 7.5X sales a year out, is 22.50, so the stock has the potential to double.

The short-term trade is somewhat contrarian, as the chart isn't promising.  This is just the last several months - the stock hit an all-time high of 45 10 months ago but has seen a slowing that has led to reduced expectations but still very robust growth:

The 10dma crossed the 50dma in mid-October and both have been under the 150dma for even longer.  In my book, this counts as overextended.  The stock is somewhat oversold as well.  The target of 13.49 is based on the trading action in late November and then that jump in mid-December - I think 13.60 is big resistance for now.  The 150dma is declining and should be to 14 or so by the time this trade expires, serving as an additional ceiling.  The stop of 10.88 is set based upon the lows in Mid-January, right before it gapped up.  The short-term chart shows support above 11, but this stop gives us a little bit of room.  Based on the 11.38 entry, the upside is 18.5%, while the stop would result in a loss of 4.4%.  That ratio is 4.2X up to down.

Posted to The Analytical Trader on Feb 01, 2013 — 11:02 AM
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