Post-turkey update

Happy Monday!  Happy December!

We at Sea Change hope everyone had a great long weekend with family and friends!  On our end, it was lots of food, fun and football - culminating with tonight's Monday Nighter between the Fins and the Jets.  

As for the markets, the plunge in crude oil has appropriately captured all of the headlines since the OPEC follies on Thanksgiving Day.  With their decision and announcement to not cut supplies, they basically "threw in the towel" and admitted to the world that they no longer control oil prices.  They are now more concerned with making enough money to sustain their palace budgets,etc. and cannot afford to cut back on supplies.

We now believe crude is going through a counter-trend bounce that may terminate at around 72.83 - 73.84 (at the very least).  Any continuation higher past 73.84 would lead to a test of 78 or so.  Honestly, though, we don't believe crude will make it past the 73.84 level.  We're long of crude futures right now and plan on taking profits at around 72.74 and then watching to see where signs of a reversal appear.  The next move lower after crude's bounce runs its course will be $54 - $55.  

We are short-term bullish on stocks and will be looking to buy into the indices on today's dip in anticipation of the S&P making it up to around 2200 - 2250 (from 2058 currently).  We are obviously long of several crude oil names (XOM, CVX and SLB - as well as USO) for the bounce in crude.  

We believe that US Treasury yields and the US Dollar are likely headed a bit higher in the short-term - today's weakness not withstanding.  That would seem to correspond well with the idea of higher equity ...

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Potential buys

We'd love to pick up LNKD and GPRO on any dip in price today.  Great holiday holds.

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No weekend update this week

Due to travel plans this past weekend, there was / is no full market report published.

Here are some quick thoughts on the topics we normally cover in the report:

  • S&P futures at 2034.75 have key "expanding flat" resistance at ...
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Some trades on and off the books

FYI, some trades that we were not able to get on the site in the last few sessions included:

  • Short DUK at 82.18 at 1:09pm EST on 11/4
  • Short LMT at 190.73 at 3:33pm EST on 11/4
  • Long GES at ...
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Stop outs and holds heading into the weekend

Right now, in our subscription portfolio, it looks like we'll be stopped out (barring any late day reversals) of DE, AIG, MET and UTX short positions.  We'll be holding on to our shorts in CSX, BIIB, DUK and LMT.  We ...

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KUDOS - TO WHOM, THOUGH?

  • Are we to congratulate / thank the Bank of Japan for starting QE just as the FOMC ended ours?  Seems silly for them to be doing QE when their rates remain near lows.  Seems sillier for them to literally be ...
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Weekly Global Markets Report just posted!!

Check it out under the "Newsletters" tab

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Portfolio happenings this morning...

Several technical set-ups spurred trades in our portfolios this morning:

  1. Shorted INTC as it faces key resistance at $32.96 - sign up for our service to see our portfolio / trade parameters
  2. Shorted JJG in anticipation of renewed weakness in wheat ...
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End of week biases...

Given the current geo-political climate and the increased volatility we've seen in the global markets this week - including in commodities, currencies and fixed income on top of stocks - it's hard to imagine anyone wanting to go into the ...

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Excellent advice these last turbulent months...
         
Wide stop loss and small at profit taking but that's their style.
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