Morning Comment: Financial stocks still look great on a longer-term basis


You can’t get a lot more boring than we got yesterday in the broad stock market….as the major averages finished the day pretty much unchanged on the lowest volume day of the year so far. This action (or non-action) is not a big surprise. We’re just beginning the new quarter, so institutional investors don’t feel the need to “window dress” their portfolios like they do at the end of a quarter. Also, the stock market is trading at a new all-time high…and it’s very expensive. Since we’re still about two weeks away from earnings seasons (and at least 3 weeks from the meat of that earnings season), it’s not surprising that investors are sitting on their hands a little bit…in order to make sure that the fabulous year for earnings that the consensus is looking for will come to fruition.

Jamie Dimon made some headlines this morning by saying that the boom we’re experiencing right now could last until 2023. That’s great, but as we have been saying for some time now, we’re not questioning whether the economy is going to do extremely well going forward. We’re only asking whether the stock market has already priced-in that growth…given that it is trading at 23x forward earnings and 3x sales. (That price-to-sales number is a much better number to follow. Companies can do things to make their EPS look better than they really are…they can’t do that with sales.) Since that price-to-sales ratio of 3.0493 is the highest number in history (MUCH higher than it was in 2000), it shows that this stock market is an extremely expensive one. (1st chart below.)

Of course, valuations are a HORRIBLE timing tool, so the stock market could certainly continue to rally for a several weeks…or even several months. We do not believe it ...

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Morning Comment: ARKK....AMZN....Mary Jane Bush


  • Some profit taking in front of tomorrow's employment report?
  • $110 is the KEY support level for ARKK
  • Ditto for the $2,950 level on AMZN.
  • A tribute to Mary Jane Bush, Wall Street pioneer.


The stock futures are trading higher this ...

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Morning Comment: Small-caps, Biotechs testing KEY support levels


If history is any guide the market tends to rally at the end of the quarter…as institutional investors mark-up their favorite picks. Thus, with only two days left in the first quarter, maybe it should be no surprise that the ...

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Morning Comment: Several Overseas Markets Showing Some Cracks.


The Treasury market rallied very nicely yesterday, and this obviously led to a rather material drop in long-term interest rates. However, instead of that causing a nice bounce in the stock market, stocks got hit quite hard. In our minds, ...

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Morning Comment: Banks Ripe for a Short-term Pull-back.

In our weekend piece this past weekend, we highlighted that although we expect long-term rates to head higher over time, we also think that they are ripe for a pull-back over the short-term. We showed how the chart on the ...

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Morning Comment: WAKE UP, the FED has become more hawkish!



Despite the consensus narrative after the Fed announcement/press conference yesterday, we would argue that the one thing that everybody is missing is that the Fed keeps confirming lately that it has changed its policy...and has become more hawkish. ...

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Midday Comment: Nasdaq approaching the "neck-line" of an "H&S" pattern


This is a note I posted today late in the morning. If you would like to get posts like these on a more timely basis...as well as receive my daily comments and "The Weekly Top 10" piece, please join us ...

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Midday Comment: Nasdaq approaching the "neck-line" of an "H&S pattern


This is a note I posted today late in the morning. If you would like to get posts like these on a more timely basis...as well as receive my daily comments and "The Weekly Top 10" piece, please join us ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


If you would like to get these unique insights on a regular basis during these fascinating times in the investment world, please click here to subscribe to “The Maley Report.”......Thank you very much.



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents: ...

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Morning Comment: A willingness to let inflation


It was an ugly day in the stock market yesterday as the 2.4% drop in the S&P 500 and the 3.5% dive in the Nasdaq came on a decent sized increase in volume and very poor breadth. In fact, the ...

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Morning Comment: Travel & leisure stocks getting overbought near-term.


As we highlighted yesterday morning, large intraday-reversals (like the kind we got on Tuesday) almost always see some sort of upside follow-through over the very-short-term. That is exactly what we got yesterday...as some more dovish comments from Chairman Powell helped ...

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Morning Comment: Powell Testimony.....TSLA & Bitcoin at key technical junctures.


We had a widely divergent market yesterday...as some groups rallied strongly as others got hit hard. In other words, the rotation that we’ve seen in the stock market in recent months was on steroids yesterday. Therefore, even though the S&P ...

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