Morning Comment: The Recent Drop in Yields Actually Makes it Easier for the Fed to


The focus this week for many investors will be the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday…and the announcement and press conference that will follow. Tomorrow’s PPI number should get a lot of attention as well, but the big question the markets are facing right now is how fast the Fed will begin their process to taper back on the massive liquidity/stimulus that they’ve been providing the system over the past 15 months.

We hope you noticed that we did not say that the big question facing the markets today is whether the Fed will taper back on their QE program. That decision has already been made. The massive program that was put into place back in March of 2020 was initiated because the economy was almost completely shutting down and (more importantly) the fixed income market was freezing up. NOW, we have a situation where the economy is MUCH, MUCH better than it was 15 months ago and the fixed income markets are working just fine. So, the Fed WILL start to taper back on their QE program this year.

Too many people are focused on the strength of the economy and the prospects for inflation. EVEN if the bounce back in the economy was not as strong as it has become…and EVEN if the prospects for inflation remained tame…the Fed would STILL be beginning the process to taper back on their liquidity/stimulus injections. WE NO LONGER HAVE A STATE OF EMERGENCY IN THE ECONOMY AND THE BOND MAREKT, SO THE FED NO LONGER NEEDS TO PROVIDE AN EMERGENCY LEVEL OF STIMULUS!!! In fact, if they keep providing that kind of stimulus, they’ll do more harm that good. (They insure that inflation becomes a major problem…and they’ll inflate the kind of bubble that will be all but impossible to recover ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) If the S&P, Nasdaq & Russell can see meaningful breakouts, we’ll have to turn more constructive.

2) Despite the way it seems, the stock market rally has stalled-out.

3) There are signs ...

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Morning Comment: Listen to what the Fed & Treasury Dept are telling us: Rates are going higher.



Friday’s weaker-than-expected employment report led to a good-sized drop in the yield on the U.S. 10-year note…which closed at 1.55%. It is bouncing slightly this morning up to almost 1.58%, but it is still within the sideways range we talked ...

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Morning Comment: No, it's not different this time.


Although the monthly employment report can sometimes create a big move in the marketplace, it certainly doesn’t always do that, so today could end up being a real yawner of a day. (If we don’t see much movement in the ...

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Morning Comment: Crude oil/energy stocks poised to breakout (again).



Sometimes the stock market closes at a much different level than the futures were indicating in the pre-market earlier that day. Thus, the fact that the futures are trading much higher this morning does not guarantee that we’ll have a ...

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Morning Comment: Bank stocks poised to make yet another


We had a pretty uneventful day in the stock market on Friday…as the market trading in a fairly tight range…on low volume and breadth that was not particularly compelling. The futures are trading higher this morning as we move into ...

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Morning Comment: Very important week for Bitcoin...and for Tesla.

Do you ever wonder what Elon Musk says to his friends in the evening? This is what he might have said late last week. “I’m bored. Since I’m not in the lime-light to the huge degree I was last weekend ...

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Morning Comment: Focusing on LT rates & the semis.....Will Bitcoin hold?

It’s amazing. The stock market got hit hard yesterday…and every bull on Wall Street tried to say that they saw it coming. (In other words, they said the same thing they always say when these moves take place.) That said, ...

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Morning Comment: If Inflation is Only Transitory, Default is the Only Outcome. (Thus it Won't be Transitory.)

Well, we sure are glad that we made fun of the NY Yankees a couple of weeks ago when we had the chance…because they are on a MAJOR roll…and we’re barely one month into the season. Thank God they came ...

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Morning Comment: Updating my view not the semis, the consumer staples and the Fed.


  • The consumer staples stocks have continued to perform in-line with the S&P 500 since early March. Investors should consider adding exposure to this sector…as it should provide upside (market-sized) returns if the broad market continues to rally going forward….AND provide ...
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Morning Comment: Charts on Bunds, European Banks, FB, AAPL, & STX


Well, there’s no question that there will be a lot of news today…so it will be interesting to see if any of it (or if all of it combined) will create a measurable move in the stock market. We get ...

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Morning Comment: Bitcoin...vulnerable to a drop to $41K?


The capital gains tax proposal that was put out by the Biden Administration knocked-down the stock market yesterday afternoon, but it was hardly a disaster. The decline came on breadth that was benign….and even though volume did increase, it was ...

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