Morning Comment: Yet ANOTHER "key juncture" for the stock market.




Many times this year, we have said the next few days were going to be very important as to how the next few weeks were going to playout in the stock market. No, we have not been the “boy who cried wolf.” Most of those examples have indeed been important. Many times, the poor performance of the market at those “key junctures” has led to further declines in the stock market. Other times (like in late-January and mid-March), it was followed by nice rallies.

We’re facing another one of these “key junctures” once again this morning. We’ve seen a nice “set-up” for a further rally over the past two trading days…but we got some bad news last night that could throw a big wrench in the works……The “set-up” we’re talking about was the strong late-day bounce last Friday…that was followed by a strong rally yesterday (which included another late-day rally). All of this took place after the S&P had tested (and held) the important 3,800 support level that many technicians have been talking about recently. The fact that the market had acted quite well have a positive test of an important support level gave investors some hope that the tradable bounce that so many people were looking for a couple of weeks ago…was finally going to come to fruition (albeit from a much lower level).

HOWEVER, after the close last night, SNAP announced that it was cutting its revenue forecasts significantly. This has knocked the stock down by 30%...and is dragging down the shares of other social media stocks with it. The reasons for the slash in forecast had a familiar ring to it. They blamed rising inflation, supply chain issues, labor issues, the war in Ukraine, etc. In other words, the problems they are facing are not unique to ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Will the consumer story strong? We should get some important clues this week.


It was just a short-covering rally?…..That is what the skeptics ask whenever the stock market rallies on one day during an extended correction or bear market. The problem is that pretty much all rallies that take place during a correction/bear ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Is the "forced selling" in the crypto market over for now?


By mid-afternoon yesterday, the S&P 500 Index had fallen to 3,858…within spitting distance of the 3,800 level that so many people (including ourselves) have been saying was a good target for a short-term bottom for the stock market. (Some people ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Is a



During the first years of our career, nobody would ever have asked, “How much will the markets have to go down before the Fed will shift their monetary policy?” Back then, the thought that the Fed would think about anything ...

Read More
Comments

THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Stagflation IS here…and it IS going to get worse.

2) On a technical basis, we sit at a CRITICAL juncture for the S&P 500 and NDX 100.

3) A “re-rating/re-valuation” process in ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: How long will a short-term bounce last?


The stock market stands at a precarious position and thus any further downside movement...either now, or after a short-term bounce...will be very negative for the stock market on a technical basis.

The Nasdaq fell to its lowest levels of the ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: A break market in bonds will not be bullish for stocks.


There are some pundits who believe that a major sell-off in bonds will be bullish for stocks because the sellers of those bonds will use the proceeds to buy stocks. What these pundits don't understand is that the seller of ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Long-term bonds are quite ripe for a bounce (and thus fall in yields).


  • We saw some more technical damage yesterday, so the stock market needs to bounce quickly and sharply to keep its recent upside momentum.
  • The Treasury bond market is ripe for a bounce (fall in yields). This could take place EVEN ...
Read More
Comments

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The divergence between the stock and bond markets go way beyond just the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-yr note.

2) Saying that the stock market has “priced-in” what is going on ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Tighter financial conditions are bearish for stocks.....Justin Rose.


To receive these insights on a daily basis...and get my "Weekly Top 10" piece each weekend, please click here to subscribe to "The Maley Report."



It was another wild day for the stock market…as the NDX Nasdaq 100 index saw ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: "If Stocks Don't Fall, the Fed Needs to Force Them."


The second most powerful person at the Fed (by far) is usually the NY Fed President. Well, one of the former NY Fed President's is telling us that the Fed actually WANTS the stock market to decline going forward....thus investors ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: The XLK tech ETF is testing key resistance


Morning Comment: The XLK tech ETF is testing key resistance.


  • The “internals” were mediocre yesterday, but the rally still pushed the S&P and Nasdaq closer to their key resistance levels.
  • If the XLK tech ETF can break its key resistance ...
Read More
Comments