Morning Comment: Be prepared IN ADVANCE...the signs are all over the place!


There are a lot of things going on today, so we have many candidates for a catalyst for a big move in the stock market over the rest of this week. The futures are trading significantly lower in pre-market trading, but that doesn’t mean a “big move” has to come to the downside. In fact, we’re not hearing anything particularly specific for this morning’s 1% decline.........Don’t worry, the Street will come up with a reason after the fact....but our view is that a rise in the dollar...the a fall in Bitcoin towards 30,0000...and the crazy move in heavily shorted stocks like GME & AMC...are raising concerns that this overvalued stock market is due for a pull-back.

Again, this does not mean that today’s events will be the beginning of a strong “tradable” pull-back in stocks immediately. Bitcoin could easily bounce strongly and the dollar could easily roll back-over. More importantly, today’s comments from Fed Chairman Powell could calm things down rather quickly...and the earnings announcements out of stocks like AAPL, TSLA, LRCX, etc. could create a strong bounce over the last two days of the week.

Then again, maybe the real reason the futures are down so much today is because investors are beginning to realize that when the #1 issue everybody has been talking about this week has to do with the RIDICULOUS rallies in two stocks that have absolutely HORRIBLE intermediate-term prospects: GME & AMC. In other words, with SO MUCH else going on in the world (pandemic, vaccines, new administration, earnings, China/Taiwan, etc)...the fact that everybody is focused on two companies that are likely to go out of business is probably something that is finally scaring some people.

As we highlighted yesterday, we strongly believe that the REAL issue surrounding GME & AMC is that the huge ...

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Morning Comment: The REAL Reason Why GameStop's Action Should be a Concern



Everybody has been talking about GameStop (GME) in recent days...which makes total sense given that the stock had rallied over 3,000% from its August level...and it has done this even though its prospects are worse than anything Judge Smells would ...

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Morning Comment: Bitcoin should be a good indicator for the stock market near-term.



The funny thing about Bitcoin right now is that people either want to read or hear everything they can about the asset...or they’re sick and tired of everybody talking about it. (The latter group tends to be the ones who ...

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Morning Comment: Charts on NFLX, GS, and UPS.


As expected, the market reacted well to Janet Yellen’s confirmation testimony yesterday...and the ensuing bounce led to a 50% retracement of last week’s losses in just one day. The rally came on pretty mediocre “internals”...as the volume was nothing special ...

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Morning Comment: Chip stocks: Great run, but they're getting very overbought near-term.


We find it comical that some pundits think that since a couple of Fed members have come out to say that the Fed is unlikely to cut back on their QE program any time soon, it means that we should ...

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Morning Comment: The Next Two Weeks Could Be Key For Bitcoin


The stock market took it on the chin a little bit yesterday, but it came on breadth that was basically flat for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and the NYSE Composite indexes. It also came low volume of less ...

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Morning Comment: What if the dollar actually rallies for a while?


There is no question in our minds that what those people did when they took over the capital building this week was appalling...and disgraceful. However, what in the world would have happened if they had been terrorists? Sure the Capital ...

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Morning Comment: One Day Does Not Make a Trend....S. Korea....Gold.



The S&P 500 Index fell 1.48% yesterday...and in the 21st century, there have only been three other years where the first day of trading gave us a decline of more than 1%. Those years were 2001, 2008, 2015. The average ...

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Morning Comment: Bring on the trivia!


Welcome to January...which is “trivia month.” That’s right, after the first day of trading...the third day of trading...the first week of trading...and the first month of trading...of every new year, we hear all sorts of trivia about what the action ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Since we are constantly getting new readers, we like to start our weekend piece with a quick note every once in a while...and the first piece of the year would seem to be a good time to do this once ...

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Morning Comment: It's (still) All About Liquidity


We have been out for several days due to the holiday, so although we have certainly kept an eye on the markets over the past week, we don’t have our fingers on the pulse of the markets to the degree ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10.....2021 Preview


Two quick notes: First, due to the holiday, we will not be sending out a weekend piece next weekend. Second, this weekend’s piece deals with our macro outlook at next year. Thus we talk about our view on the broad ...

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