Morning Comment: The Retailers & Housing Stocks Should Be The Important Indicators


After a very disappointing day on Tuesday (when the market dropped over 3% from its intraday highs), the stock market bounced-back quite nicely yesterday. The S&P 500 rallied 3.4% and finished on its highs of the day for the second time in three days this week. We do have to point out, however, that the internals were pretty mixed. The breadth was quite good…at 20 to 1 positive on the S&P 500, but volume was almost 20% lower than it was on Tuesday when the market saw its big downside reversal. Also, as one rather smart fellow pointed out to us, the most active names were chock full of the laggards…which had been beaten up so badly for so long that they didn’t have anywhere to go but up. (USO, UCO, CCL, F, MFA, GE, CHK, BAC, DAL.)

That said, it was still great to see that the S&P was able to break more meaningfully above its 200 week MA. As we highlighted yesterday, that was the most important resistance level we have been watching, so if it can hold above that line as we move through the month of April, it’s going to be bullish on the technical side of things. This will be especially true given that the SPX has made its first minor “higher-low/higher-high” sequence since the bear market began in February.

In fact, the same thing can be said about several other global stock markets…and about some of the key groups in the domestic stock market as well. For instance, South Korea’s KOSPI index, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong and Germany’s DAX are have all made “higher-low/higher-highs.” Heck, even Italy’s FTSE MIB index is very close to making a higher-high after making a higher-low recently!

As for the domestic groups we just referred to, ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: The morphing of the coronavirus.


By the time we reached midday yesterday…and the stock market was up 10% from last Friday’s close…it seemed like the bullish talk within the market place had begun to grow. In other words, the number of people who (like us) ...

Read More
Comments

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) We expect a much more gradual rebound after this recession than the consensus believes.

2) That said, the initial bounce in stocks will be strong…even if it becomes more gradual later.

3) ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: The Battle Lines Are Well Defined For The Chip Stocks


  • Nice rally yesterday…on good volume…but mediocre breadth.
  • Can the rally in crude oil help (and offset the employment data) again?
  • In the future, 2021 earnings expectations will need to be compared to 2019, not 2020.
  • The support/resistance levels for the ...
Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Liquidation Phases Sometimes Come in Waves


The news that ABT could be coming up with a coronavirus test that gets results in 5 minutes and that JNJ announced a lead vaccine candidate over-shadowed the rising numbers of Covid 19 cases and deaths from over the weekend…to ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Keep one eye on the Russell 2000 index


We continue to make excellent (and profitable) calls on the stock market. After strongly suggesting that investors raise cash in January and early February...and then saying rallies should be sold for several weeks after that, we called for a very ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: What Happens When "Forced Selling" Subsides?


There is no question that the bounce in the stock market yesterday was a good one…as the “internals” were quite strong. Breadth was a whopping 44 to 1 positive on the S&P 500 index and 13 to 1 positive for ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: What is the Nasdaq's Recent Action Telling Us?


Political games by Democrats in Congress created yet another substantial decline in the U.S. stock market yesterday as the DJIA and S&P 500 fell about 3%. Don’t get us wrong, we do believe that “emission standards” are very important for ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Can the Markets Actually Rally into Quarter-end?


We are all going through something we have never gone through before, but that doesn’t mean that history does not repeat itself. During financial crisis…when the markets were falling out of bed and on the verge of melting down…Congress played ...

Read More
Comments

BA & XOM.....Wow, these stocks are incredibly oversold.


This morning we highlighted how Boeing (BA) has become very, very oversold. Of course, BA was already facing serious problems before the coronavirus breakout took place, so it’s incredibly tough to try to pick the exact bottom for this stock. ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Will the U.S. Follow Europe?


WHAT AN UNBELIEVABLE DAY YESTERDAY!!!!! Tom Brady decided to leave the Patriots!!!!.......Oh yeah…the stock market rallied 6% too after a large fiscal plan was proposed….BUT TOM BRADY LEFT THE PATRIOTS!!!!!

Of course, SOME people will try to say that the ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Panic At Your Own Risk


  • Are “the authorities” causing a panic?
  • The reaction is so much different that it was after 9/11.
  • Despite turning bearish earlier than most, we’re actually not as bearish as a lot of people this morning.
  • Signs of capitulation and the ...
Read More
Comments