Exxon (XOM): Incredibly Oversold


A very smart person we know told us he bought XOM yesterday. He did not follow that up by trying to sell us on this fact, so he was not “talking his book.” He simply stated the fact that he bought the stock.

We do not cover XOM. (Do investors really need small and medium size firms covering a mega-cap name like this one?) Therefore, we cannot talk about the stock on a fundamental basis. However, we can say that the stock is now yielding over 9%. Since we don’t cover the stock, we cannot talk about whether we think their dividend is safe or not, but we’re sure you can get plenty of informed opinions on this subject.

We can also point out that on the technical side of things, XOM is becoming INCREDIBLY oversold. It’s weekly RSI chart has moved below 10!!!!! That’s the most oversold it has EVER been…by a long shot!!! Our charts go back to 1980…and there is not other time that XOM came even close to being as oversold as it is right now…..We’d also point out that it now stands at more than a 50% discount to its 200 week MA. That discount is TWICE as large as it has EVER been on a percentage basis!!!...... Therefore, it should be getting quite ripe for a bounce at some point very soon.

Again, we cannot talk about XOM’s dividend. However, if you believe it is safe, this could be a very nice stock for both short-term traders and long-term investors. Even if oil falls further, a 9% yield will “pay you to wait”…assuming they don’t cut the dividend. (BTW, it also still has a AAA rating. We don’t know how safe that rating is either, but we can say that there aren’t many AAA ...

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Morning Comment: More Than a 1-Day Bounce This Time?


In our Morning Comment yesterday morning, we highlighted several signs of capitulation that we were observing. We also said that although a near-term bottom might not come immediately (Thursday), we did expect one to begin very, very soon. Well, we ...

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Morning Comment: The Stock Markets Reacting the Way it Should


The news that the Trump administration was going to come forward with a fiscal stimulus plan that includes a payroll tax cut (and maybe even some relief for the energy industry) helped the stock market (which had become quite oversold ...

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Morning Comment: It's About the Credit Markets Now.



Well, we just got a true shock to the stock market. As we said over the weekend, stock investors had several weeks to react to the outbreak of the coronavirus. The moves in other asset prices (like gold and especially ...

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Thursday midday Comment: Short-Term Support/Resistance



The S&P 500 Index is trying to hold its 200 DMA (which is just above 3050). To be honest, the 200 DMA didn’t provide much support in last week’s late-week decline…and didn’t provide a lot of resistance on the days ...

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Morning Comment: Credit Spreads Are Still Raising Concerns


  • Nice “Biden rally,” but a short squeeze provided A LOT of fuel as well.
  • Despite the rally in stocks, Treasury yields and gold prices did not respond in-kind.
  • We also did not see much of a tightening of credit spreads ...
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Midday Comment (very quick)


Our call for a sharp short-term bounce has worked-out very well so far. The S&P now stands a full 6% above its intraday lows from Friday! However, when it got up to its 200 DMA today, the S&P stalled-out. Therefore, ...

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Morning Comment: Ripe for a SHORT-TERM Bounce Soon

The futures have been trading all over the place since they opened last evening at 6:00pm. When we went to bed last night, they have been down by more than 1%...then they flipped to the upside overnight and stood in ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) A recession will mean another credit crisis…even if its smaller than the last one.

2) Victory lap! Also, if you read our work regularly, we hope you will support us.

3) We ...

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Morning Comment: Keeping Your Head While Others are Losing Theirs



We definitely saw signs of capitulation yesterday…more than we saw on Tuesday. Not only was breadth similarly horrible (32 to 1 negative on the S&P 500 and 10 to 1 negative on the NYSE Composite Index), but we finally got ...

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(Quick) Midday Comment: Another Leg Higher For Gold???


It’s still early in the trading day, but gold is breaking above its closing highsfrom January 31st in a fairly significant manner. In other words, it could sell-off later in the day and close below its highs of $1,589) ...

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Morning Comment: What if AAPL Breaks Below Support?


AAPL announced last night that they will miss their quarterly revenue target due to the coronavirus…and that “it will be a slower return to normal” as well……..The decline in AAPL is not a disaster…as it is trading only 3% lower. ...

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