AAPL historical pattern could lead market lower

Years ago, we wrote a piece for Minyanville.com covering a pattern we identified in AAPL shares and the major indices. Paraphrasing - AAPL runs up into and slightly past their earnings date and then pulls back a great majority of the time. Obviously, this action leads the market up and then down - which is never more likely than now given AAPL's increased market capitalization and influence on the indices.

The chart above shoes AAPL touching the upper edge of the long-term uptrend channel today. The median uptrend line comes in at around $340 while the "wave 4" support would come in at $370.

So, let's make it official - we're calling for a top in AAPL and the market - for now - today and are expecting a pullback of 15% - 20-% in AAPL and a corresponding dip in the NASDAQ and S&P. Honestly, the action outside of FAANG + MSFT and perhaps the cloud stocks and TSLA hasn't been nearly as bullish as those leadership areas. A pullback in leadership should not be surprising to anyone at this point. But, the technical evidence on AAPL's chart above is pretty compelling from our viewpoint.

Be well!

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UPDATED S&P FUTURES LEVELS BASED ON TODAY'S ACTION...

#STOCKS #CRASH Right now, we sit at 2,487 or so on S&P futures (as of 6:00pm on 12/20).

Support for today's move lower ended up being 2450 on a 5-hr candle chart.

I'll be looking to start shedding longs on ...

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Headed to 2412 - 2417

#stocks #crash

U-G-L-Y!!!!

The break of the overnight lows opens the door to a drop to 2412 - 2417.75.

From there, I'm looking for a rally to at least 2,572 and possibly up to 2,600.

From there, look for a ...

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​INTRA-WEEK UPDATE - OUCH!!

#stocks #crash #crude #aapl #amzn #fb #nflx #googl Monday's rally made it up to 3 points shy of the lower edge of my target range before failing miserably. I was surprised at the failure to even reach 2,816, but not ...

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Upside targets for S&P futures

#qqq #tqqq #spy #spxl #vxx #svxy Based on today's action - and assuming the break above 2707.75 holds on S&P futures - I'm targeting sales of trading longs at 2,816.50 and initiation of shorts at 2,844.25.

A daily close above ...

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They're trying to break out above ST resistance range

#qqq #tqqq #svxy #vxx Potential "abc upside correction" resistance comes in at 2,705.75 for S&P futures. They're currently trading at 2,712 - so a breakout attempt is in progress.

Anything above that on a 1-hr, 4-hr or daily close will ...

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Quick update on S&P futures levels at the close

#qqq #tqqq #sqqq #spy #spxl #spxs We got the oversold bounce - or part of it - that I was expecting. Now, I'm expecting 2675 - 2678 to be touched and then a pullback to 2655, 2650 or 2645. From ...

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NO BUENO!!

This is very bad action in the markets. Doesn't bode well for 2019 - that's for sure. I keep expecting some seasonal factors to spur on a counter-trend rally. The fact that we're not seeing any of that is concerning. ...

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Bitcoin downside targets

#Bitcoin #Crypto I'm no specialist in Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies - but charts are charts and technical analysis holds pretty true as long as the security or instrument being analyzed is traded with good volume and has the attention of the ...

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Apple pullback targets

For anyone interested in market-driving stocks, #Apple is working through a pullback phase currently. Based on the charts, I spot three possible pullback targets - $214, $195 and $181 (from $217.35 right now). I'd say a break below $217.35 in ...

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Ringing the bell!!!

Just to let you know that 2,873 - 2,875 on S&P futures (currently at 2,872.75) should REALLY be it for the upside run in stocks. Stocks should move lower from here and VXX should move higher - hopefully a lot ...

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Update on S&P technical levels

S&P futures have bounced sharply over the course of this week – but that comes after an even sharper sell-off in the previous week.The net result of all this gyrating is neutral results.

The most recent bounce has the “minis” ...

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Excellent advice these last turbulent months...
         
Wide stop loss and small at profit taking but that's their style.
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