The Message From The Models: The Bulls Are In Charge, But...

It was a busy weekend of birthday celebrations (we had 2) and important family events in my household (our youngest is moving into her first apartment!) and as such, I didn't take the opportunity to spend a couple hours of quality time at the keyboard.

While I've got a good start on a missive entitled "Twelve Charts Tell The Story," this piece will have to wait, as there just wasn't time to do the idea justice. Hopefully I'll be able to knock the remainder out by mid-week.

So, to start the week, I'll let the indicator boards do the majority of the talking. In short, while the trend and momentum indicators continue to sport an awful lot of green and the Fundamental Factors remain constructive, the Early Warning and "Primary Cycle" boards both continue to give me pause.

In a perfect world, with stocks overbought and sentiment becoming extreme, the market would pull back a bit to relieve some of the extreme overbought/sentiment conditions and provide an entry point for those under-invested folks who were silly enough to think that a big decline in the stock market might be meaningful. I know, I know, such thoughts are sheer folly, right!

But so far at least, the bulls have not been accommodative and all dips - which have largely been limited to intraday affairs - have been bought on a consistent basis this year. However, with the S&P currently sitting at an important technical juncture and the table "set" for at least some sort of pause/pullback, it will be interesting to see if the bears can get up off the mat and get something going - if even for a few days.

But for now, let's dispense with the objective musings and get to the indicators ...

Read More
Comments

Party On, Wayne!

The joyride to the upside in the stock market continued last week as the S&P 500 surged another 2.5%. If my calculator is correct, this means the venerable blue-chip index is now up 10.7% so far in 2019 ...

Read More
Comments

Bull vs. Bear. The Line In The Sand?

On Tuesday, February 5 and again on Wednesday, February 6, the S&P 500 bumped into its 200-day moving average. While I'm not exactly sure why this particular indicator captures the attention of so many (there are a myriad of ...

Read More
Comments

Herd Behavior

"Herd behavior, or the tendency of individuals in a group to 'follow the trend,' has frequently been observed in equity markets. Herd behavior in investors leads to a convergence of action." [Yan, Zhao, Sun (2012)]


"Theoretical models on herd behavior ...

Read More
Comments

Where Do Things Stand Now?

To be sure, it is rare to see the mood of the market swing from the depths of despair seen on Christmas Eve to the "happy days are here again" feeling of last week in such a short period of ...

Read More
Comments

All Clear?

The bad news is that after a rather rambunctious rally, the S&P 500 remains -8.9% from its all-time high. The good news is that after the -19.8% shellacking that ended on Christmas Eve, the stock market now starts ...

Read More
Comments

Is Enough Baked In?

After a very scary decline and then an impressive rally, the question most investors are probably asking themselves is, where are we now?

In order to get our bearings, let's review where we've been. Recall that as of ...

Read More
Comments

The Daily Decision for 1.7.19 - The Magic Words


The State of the Markets:

Well that was fun. Don't look now fans, but after Friday's joyride to the upside, the S&P 500 is up nearly 8% from its Christmas Eve low and is now down only -13 ...

Read More
Comments

The Magic Words

Well that was fun. Don't look now fans, but after Friday's joyride to the upside, the S&P 500 is up nearly 8% from its Christmas Eve low and is now down only -13.3% from the most recent ...

Read More
Comments

Is It Over? And What To Expect Next

I ended last week's pre-holiday missive with the following: "It is easy to say the bulls are due. Really due." And as if right on cue, stocks proceeded to bounce hard the following session with the Dow Jones Industrial ...

Read More
Comments

More Than Meets The Eye Happening Here

I attended a holiday gathering for one of my advisor clients on Friday evening. While everyone appeared to be in the spirit of the season, when the conversation eventually turned to the market action, the mood quickly changed.

In talking ...

Read More
Comments

Are Investors Now Fighting The Fed And The Tape?

I'm not sure whether it was the late Marty Zweig or his buddy Ned Davis who originally coined the phrase, but it appears that after yesterday, anyone long the stock market may now officially be fighting both the Fed ...

Read More
Comments