The Question of the Day

The question of the day from a technical perspective is if the stock market is "breaking out" to the upside. If the answer is yes, then we need to assume that the next leg of the current bull market is about to get underway and all dips should be bought. Good times!

However, if we are in for yet another "breakout fake out" then traders need to play the game very differently. No, instead of a "buy high and sell higher" approach, it is usually better to "ride the range" when stocks are stuck in a sideways consolidation phase. In short, this means that traders may be looking to "sell the rips" while waiting for prices to test the lower end of the range.

But before we attempt to come up with an answer, let's take a look at the state of our trend and momentum indicators.

The State of the Trend Indicators

The Trend board indicators are designed to determine the overall technical health of the current stock market trend in terms of the short- and intermediate-term time frames.

The Trend board has scored a perfect 10.0 this week as every single box is green. There are two ways to look at such a reading. First, the bulls will opine that the current state of the trend board means the market is "in gear" and there is more upside to come. On the other hand, given the question of the day, the skeptic in me will note that universally favorable readings on the trend board often lead to pullbacks.

Gun to the head, I'll side with the bull camp here. Sure, stocks have all kinds of issues to deal with and a pullback could occur at any time, for any reason. However, as a long time "trend and momentum ...

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Portfolio Update: 1.23.20


The ALL-NEW 2020 Daily Decision Model Portfolio

NEW TRADING STRATEGY FOR 2020!

About The Portfolio: The Daily Decision Model Portfolio is an aggressive, actively risk-managed, multi-strategy, multi-manager approach. The primary objective of the portfolio is to stay in tune with ...

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What Do The Cycles Say About 2020?


The State of the Markets:

Good Tuesday morning and welcome back. Last week, I took a just-for-fun stab at modeling expectations for what calendar year 2020 might look like in the U.S. stock market. And since stocks seem to only ...

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State of the Markets: Modeling 2020 Expectations (Just For Fun)


The State of the Markets:

Happy Monday and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. I don't know about you, but I've been intrigued lately by all the projections/prognostications that analysts feel compelled to provide at the beginning of ...

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Modeling 2020 Expectations (Just For Fun)

Happy Monday and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. I don't know about you, but I've become intrigued lately with all the projections/prognostications that analysts feel compelled to provide at the beginning of each year. So, just for ...

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Current Holdings for ALL-NEW 2020 Daily Decision Model Portfolio


The ALL-NEW 2020 Daily Decision Model Portfolio

ALL NEW FOR 2020!

The Daily Decision Model Portfolio is an active, risk-managed, multi-strategy, multi-manager strategy designed to be an aggressive growth approach. The primary objective of the portfolio is to stay in ...

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INTRODUCING: The ALL-NEW Daily Decision Model Portfolio for 2020


ALL NEW FOR 2020!

The 2020 Daily Decision Model Portfolio

The 2020 Daily Decision Model Portfolio is all new for 2020. We will be launching the portfolio this afternoon - so be prepared for the trade alerts!

Why The Change? ...

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Tips From Real-World Wendy Rhoades

It was a very busy week/weekend as I first attended NAAIM's (National Association of Active Investment Managers) annual conference. The conference was stellar, and it was great to hang out with so many like-minded investment professionals Sunday through Wednesday.

I ...

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The Best Recession Ever!

I'm not sure who I borrowed the title of this week's missive from, but I think we all have to admit that this is probably the best recession/slowdown ever!

Instead of the economy flirting with negative growth in the first ...

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Is "Melt-Up" The Operative Word?

We've been talking lately about the idea that big hedge funds and systematic traders have been caught on the wrong side of the stock market's recent run for the roses. The thinking is this fact alone could account for the ...

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Am I Wrong To Be A Little Concerned?

Well it's official. As of Friday's close (a close that was likely influenced by the quad-witching event and a handful of S&P index rebalances), the S&P 500 is now up +20.05% from the 12/24/18 panic low. Wow talk about a ...

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Let's Call It Constructive

The fact that stocks pulled back a bit last week shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone. The S&P 500 had enjoyed an historic joyride to the upside in a very short period of time. As in +19.2% in ...

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