The NEW Daily Decision for 7.23.18 - It's Time To Be Careful On That Ladder


The State of the Markets:

Since we are deep into summer vacation season, I'm going to keep things brief this morning and let the indicators do most of the talking.

My take on the current market action is the consolidation phase remains intact. Yes, the market has been moving cautiously higher since April. But as I've mentioned recently, there hasn't been and zest behind the move.

Remember, when stocks blast higher with some "oomph," something called a "breadth thrust" occurs. This is where advancing issues, demand volume, the number of technically healthy stocks, and/or new highs swamp their counterparts. The great thing about a surge in breadth is history shows it portends good things to come over the ensuing 3, 6, 9, and 12-month periods. But so far at least, these indicators have not flashed a fresh batch of buy signals.

In reviewing the indicator boards this morning, I feel the "state of the market" is summed up nicely by the groups of indicators/models presented. For starters, the Primary Cycle board isn't bad, but it isn't great either and the historical average return of the S&P 500 given the current readings of the models is well below average at 3.6% vs. 8.9%. The Trend board suggests the bulls have the ball. As I've been saying, the Momentum board is positive, but not robust. The Early Warning board tells us that stocks are overbought, and sentiment is becoming a bit overdone. And then, the External Factors board makes it clear that there are fundamental issues to be concerned with.

So, as a risk manager, I have to say that some caution is warranted here. To be clear, the state of the indicators doesn't mean that a bear market is imminent ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 7.19.18 - A Look At The Big-Picture


The State of the Markets:

The original purpose for my oftentimes meandering morning market missive was to identify the driving forces behind the market action. The thinking was that putting to paper (so to speak) my thoughts on why Ms ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 7.16.18 - Divergences Are Yellow Flags


The State of the Markets:

The NASDAQ - you know, the index where most of the market's hot stocks tends to trade - closed Friday at a fresh new all-time high. The S&P 500 appears to have broken out of the ...

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Update: The NEW Daily Decision Portfolio Positions

To review, the NEW Daily Decision Portfolio is designed to be a risk-managed, multi-strategy approach to the markets.

To start, 50% of the portfolio is allocated to our Risk Managed Growth strategy, which itself is comprised of 3 management strategies ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 7.11.18 - Let's All Play: Breakout or Fakeout?


The State of the Markets:

CNBC's "Fast Money" kicked off their show Tuesday afternoon with a game they called "Breakout or Fakeout." To be honest, I usually have the T.V. on mute the vast majority of the day ...

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The Daily Decision for 7.10.18 - All About The Growth?


The State of the Markets:

Don't look now fans, but the S&P 500 is up three days in a row and has finished in the green five of the last seven sessions. This in the face of all the ...

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The Daily Decision for 6.11.18 - Buckle Up, This Will Be Interesting


The State of the Markets:

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. I hope you are buckled in as we've got a big week for the markets coming. So, before we review the state ...

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The Daily Decision for 6.6.18 - Upgrades to CORE and TRADING Models Coming Soon!


Today's Model Review:

COMING SOON: UPGRADES TO CORE AND TRADING MODELS
We are excited to announce that the latest upgrade to our models will be implemented within the next month. The CORE model will take a more growth-oriented stance ...

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The Daily Decision for 6.5.18 - A New Era For Stock Market Valuations?


The State of the Markets:

I've been saying for some time now that I believe the current corrective/consolidation phase will ultimately be resolved to the upside. Or put another way, I don't think we're seeing the ...

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The Daily Decision for 5.31.18 - The Big Reason Not To Be Negative Here


The State of the Markets:

In my humble opinion, one of the keys to success in the investing business is the ability to remain both objective and flexible. Early in my career, I would occasionally "fall in love" with my ...

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The Daily Decision for 5.30.18 - Is "Italeave" The Next Problem?


The State of the Markets:

Well, that was interesting. I don't know about you, but I had a pretty severe case of déjà vu yesterday as the global markets freaked out over the potential for an "Italeave." We've ...

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The Daily Decision for 5.29.18 - Time To Dust Off The Euro-Crisis Playbook?


The State of the Markets:

Good morning and welcome back. One of the great things about taking some time away from the keyboard and your daily routine is it gives you time to reflect on the big picture stuff as ...

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5 star all the way. Your insight and knowledge is very helpful. Analysis, charts and conclusions are sound.
         
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